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Article Futures et forward Analysing the Difference between Forward and Futures Prices
for the UK Commercial Property Market
Silvia Stanescu, Made Reina Candradewi, Radu Tunaru
University of Kent, Business School, Parkwood Road,
Canterbury CT2 7PE, UK
Tel:
Kotchoni ()
Time Series Analysis
September 30, 2016
4 / 47
Irregularly Sampled Time Series
Stock transaction prices are typically observed at irregular time
intervals
Example:
jpmorganchase institute gas report How Falling Gas Prices
Fuel the Consumer
Evidence from 25 Million People
October 2015
About the Institute
The global economy has never been more complex, more interconnected, or faster moving.
see Appendix A for the full name and description
Failed and failing
states
Oil and gas price
spike
Chronic disease,
developed world
Oil price shock
China economic
hard landing
Asset price
collapse
2nd
Retrenchment
from globalization
(developed)
Slowing Chinese
economy (<6%)
Oil and gas
price spike
Pandemics
Asset price
collapse
Retrenchment
from globalization
Interstate and
civil wars
Pandemics
Oil price shock
1st
2nd
Asset price
collapse
2010
Global governance
gaps
infrastructure
Fiscal crises
Breakdown of
critical information
Chronic disease
Slowing Chinese
economy (<6%)
Fiscal crises
Chronic disease
Oil and gas
price spike
Retrenchment
from globalization
(developed)
Economic
Fiscal crises
infrastructure
Chronic disease
Breakdown of
critical information
Oil price spikes
Retrenchment
from globalization
(developed)
Breakdown of critical information infrastructure
Asset price
collapse
2009
Retrenchment
from globalization
(emerging)
Global governance
gaps
Chronic disease
Slowing Chinese
economy (<6%)
2011
Environmental
Extreme energy
price volatility
Asset price
collapse
Geopolitical
conflict
Climate change
Fiscal crises
2011
Climate change
Biodiversity loss
Corruption
Flooding
Storms and
cyclones
2012
Geopolitical
Extreme volatility
in energy and
agriculture prices
imbalances
Food shortage
crises
Water supply
crises
Major systemic
financial failure
2012
Water supply
crises
Cyber attacks
Rising greenhouse
gas emissions
Chronic fiscal
imbalances
Severe income
disparity
2013
Societal
Failure of climatechange mitigation
and adaptation
Diffusion of
weapons of mass
destruction
Chronic fiscal
imbalances
Water supply
crises
Major systemic
financial failure
2013
Mismanagement
of population
ageing
Water supply
crises
Rising greenhouse
gas emissions
Chronic fiscal
imbalances
Severe income
disparity
2014
Technological
Critical information
infrastructure
breakdown
Unemployment
and
underemployment
Water crises
Climate change
Fiscal crises
2014
Cyber attacks
Climate change
Unemployment
and
underemployment
Extreme weather
events
Income disparity
2015
Failure of climatechange mitigation
and adaptation
Interstate conflict
with regional
consequences
Weapons of mass
destruction
Rapid and massive
spread of
infectious diseases
Water crises
2015
High structural
unemployment or
underemployment
State collapse or
crisis
Failure of national
governance
Extreme weather
events
Interstate conflict
with regional
consequences
2016
Severe energy
price shock
Large-scale
involuntary
migration
Water crises
Weapons of mass
destruction
Failure of climatechange mitigation
and adaptation
2016
Major natural
catastrophes
Interstate conflict
with regional
consequences
Failure of climatechange mitigation
and adaptation
Extreme weather
events
Large-scale
involuntary
migration
2017
Failure of climatechange mitigation
and adaptation
Major natural
disasters
Water crises
Extreme weather
events
Weapons of mass
destruction
2017
Massive incident
of data fraud/theft
Large-scale
terrorist attacks
Major natural
disasters
Large-scale
involuntary
migration
Extreme weather
events
Source:
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